Alternative Simulation Social Security Medicare (net) Medicaid Net Interest All other spending Revenue Total federal spending Unified surplus/deficit Debt held by the public Real GDP Percent of GDP Billions of 2005 dollars 2009 4.8 3.0 1.8 1.3 13.9 14.8 24.7 -9.9 53.0 "12,985" 2010 4.8 3.2 1.9 1.4 12.9 14.5 24.2 -9.6 60.7 "13,203" 2011 4.8 3.4 1.8 1.6 12.9 15.6 24.5 -8.9 68.0 "13,441" 2012 4.8 3.3 1.7 1.9 12.2 16.1 23.8 -7.7 72.8 "13,963" 2013 4.8 3.4 1.7 2.2 11.7 16.5 23.8 -7.3 76.2 "14,642" 2014 4.7 3.7 1.7 2.6 11.5 16.9 24.1 -7.2 79.6 "15,275" 2015 4.8 3.6 1.8 3.0 11.3 16.9 24.5 -7.5 83.7 "15,746" 2016 4.8 3.7 1.8 3.5 11.3 17.1 25.1 -8.0 88.2 "16,157" 2017 4.9 3.7 1.9 3.8 11.2 17.3 25.5 -8.3 93.0 "16,542" 2018 5.0 3.7 1.9 4.3 11.2 17.3 26.0 -8.7 98.2 "16,888" 2019 5.1 3.9 2.0 4.7 11.2 17.4 26.9 -9.5 103.8 "17,262" 2020 5.2 4.1 2.0 5.0 11.2 17.5 27.5 -10.0 109.8 "17,643" 2021 5.3 4.2 2.1 5.3 11.1 17.6 28.0 -10.3 116.0 "18,021" 2022 5.4 4.3 2.1 5.6 11.0 17.8 28.4 -10.7 122.0 "18,444" 2023 5.5 4.5 2.1 5.9 11.0 17.9 28.9 -11.0 128.3 "18,864" 2024 5.6 4.6 2.2 6.2 10.9 18.1 29.4 -11.4 134.7 "19,285" 2025 5.6 4.7 2.2 6.5 10.9 18.1 30.0 -11.9 141.4 "19,707" 2026 5.7 4.9 2.2 6.9 10.9 18.1 30.6 -12.5 148.6 "20,131" 2027 5.8 5.0 2.3 7.2 10.9 18.1 31.2 -13.2 156.2 "20,557" 2028 5.8 5.2 2.4 7.6 10.9 18.1 31.9 -13.8 164.1 "20,986" 2029 5.9 5.4 2.4 8.0 10.9 18.1 32.5 -14.4 172.5 "21,417" 2030 6.0 5.5 2.4 8.4 10.9 18.1 33.2 -15.1 181.2 "21,852" 2031 6.0 5.7 2.5 8.8 10.9 18.1 33.9 -15.8 190.3 "22,291" 2032 6.0 5.8 2.6 9.3 10.9 18.1 34.6 -16.5 199.8 "22,733" 2033 6.1 5.9 2.6 9.7 10.9 18.1 35.3 -17.2 209.6 "23,192" 2034 6.1 6.1 2.7 10.2 10.9 18.1 35.9 -17.9 219.8 "23,660" 2035 6.1 6.2 2.8 10.7 10.9 18.1 36.7 -18.6 230.3 "24,133" 2036 6.1 6.3 2.8 11.2 10.9 18.1 37.4 -19.3 241.1 "24,614" 2037 6.1 6.5 2.9 11.7 10.9 18.1 38.1 -20.0 252.3 "25,101" 2038 6.1 6.6 3.0 12.3 10.9 18.1 38.8 -20.7 263.8 "25,594" 2039 6.1 6.7 3.0 12.8 10.9 18.1 39.5 -21.4 275.7 "26,095" 2040 6.1 6.8 3.1 13.4 10.9 18.1 40.2 -22.1 287.8 "26,603" 2041 6.1 6.9 3.1 14.0 10.9 18.1 40.9 -22.9 300.3 "27,119" 2042 6.0 6.9 3.2 14.6 10.9 18.1 41.7 -23.6 313.0 "27,643" 2043 6.0 7.0 3.2 15.2 10.9 18.1 42.4 -24.3 326.0 "28,175" 2044 6.0 7.1 3.3 15.9 10.9 18.1 43.2 -25.1 339.4 "28,716" 2045 6.0 7.2 3.4 16.5 10.9 18.1 43.9 -25.9 353.0 "29,266" 2046 6.0 7.3 3.4 17.2 10.9 18.1 44.7 -26.6 366.9 "29,825" 2047 5.9 7.3 3.5 17.8 10.9 18.1 45.5 -27.4 381.2 "30,393" 2048 5.9 7.4 3.5 18.5 10.9 18.1 46.3 -28.2 395.9 "30,956" 2049 5.9 7.5 3.6 19.3 10.9 18.1 47.1 -29.0 411.0 "31,522" 2050 5.9 7.5 3.6 20.0 10.9 18.1 48.0 -29.9 426.4 "32,097" 2051 5.9 7.6 3.6 20.8 10.9 18.1 48.8 -30.7 442.2 "32,681" 2052 5.9 7.7 3.7 21.5 10.9 18.1 49.7 -31.6 458.2 "33,274" 2053 5.9 7.7 3.7 22.3 10.9 18.1 50.6 -32.5 474.7 "33,877" 2054 5.9 7.8 3.8 23.1 10.9 18.1 51.5 -33.4 491.4 "34,490" 2055 5.9 7.9 3.8 23.9 10.9 18.1 52.4 -34.3 508.5 "35,112" 2056 5.9 8.0 3.8 24.8 10.9 18.1 53.3 -35.3 526.0 "35,746" 2057 5.9 8.0 3.9 25.6 10.9 18.1 54.3 -36.2 543.8 "36,389" 2058 5.9 8.1 3.9 26.5 10.9 18.1 55.3 -37.2 562.0 "37,044" 2059 5.9 8.2 4.0 27.4 10.9 18.1 56.3 -38.2 580.6 "37,709" 2060 5.9 8.3 4.0 28.3 10.9 18.1 57.3 -39.2 599.6 "38,386" 2061 5.9 8.4 4.0 29.2 10.9 18.1 58.4 -40.3 618.9 "39,074" 2062 5.9 8.4 4.1 30.1 10.9 18.1 59.4 -41.3 638.7 "39,774" 2063 5.9 8.5 4.1 31.1 10.9 18.1 60.5 -42.4 658.8 "40,487" 2064 5.9 8.6 4.2 32.1 10.9 18.1 61.6 -43.5 679.3 "41,212" 2065 5.9 8.7 4.2 33.1 10.9 18.1 62.7 -44.6 700.2 "41,949" 2066 5.9 8.7 4.2 34.1 10.9 18.1 63.8 -45.8 721.6 "42,700" 2067 5.9 8.8 4.3 35.1 10.9 18.1 65.0 -46.9 743.3 "43,464" 2068 5.9 8.9 4.3 36.2 10.9 18.1 66.2 -48.1 765.5 "44,241" 2069 5.9 9.0 4.4 37.3 10.9 18.1 67.4 -49.3 788.1 "45,033" 2070 5.9 9.0 4.4 38.4 10.9 18.1 68.6 -50.5 811.1 "45,839" 2071 5.9 9.1 4.5 39.5 10.9 18.1 69.8 -51.8 834.6 "46,659" 2072 5.9 9.2 4.5 40.6 10.9 18.1 71.1 -53.0 858.5 "47,494" 2073 5.9 9.2 4.5 41.8 10.9 18.1 72.4 -54.3 882.8 "48,345" 2074 5.9 9.3 4.6 43.0 10.9 18.1 73.7 -55.6 907.6 "49,210" 2075 5.9 9.4 4.6 44.2 10.9 18.1 75.0 -56.9 932.8 "50,091" 2076 5.9 9.4 4.7 45.4 10.9 18.1 76.3 -58.3 958.5 "50,989" 2077 5.9 9.5 4.7 46.7 10.9 18.1 77.7 -59.6 984.6 "51,902" 2078 5.9 9.6 4.7 47.9 10.9 18.1 79.1 -61.0 1011.2 "52,832" 2079 5.9 9.6 4.8 49.2 10.9 18.1 80.5 -62.4 1038.3 "53,779" 2080 5.9 9.7 4.8 50.6 10.9 18.1 81.8 -63.8 1065.8 "54,744" 2081 5.9 9.7 4.8 51.9 10.9 18.1 83.3 -65.2 1093.7 "55,726" 2082 5.9 9.8 4.9 53.3 10.9 18.1 84.7 -66.6 1122.1 "56,725" 2083 5.9 9.8 4.9 54.6 10.9 18.1 86.2 -68.1 1151.0 "57,744" 2084 5.9 9.9 5.0 56.0 10.9 18.1 87.7 -69.6 1180.4 "58,781" Source: GAO's January 2010 analysis based on the Trustees’ assumptions for Social Security and Medicare.